Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c082447870e53c08e3af1295fdbdc0ec125cc997b273d8baccbf1a3d49a52fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Lynx | 31c | 7,976$2,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,436.07 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Lynx | 32c | 4,388$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.6 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Team Lynx | 42c | 2,500$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.99 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Team Lynx | 55c | 1,597$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.25 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Team Lynx | 30c | 1,371$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.65 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx | 34c | 1,054$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.14 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…2812backed Aurora | 47c | 929.44$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.22 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Lynx | 60c | 885.79$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.8 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Team Lynx | 11c | 824.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Lynx | 14c | 795.79$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team Lynx | 13c | 743.65$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 74c | 685.07$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.14 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Team Lynx | 40c | 621.19$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.48 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora | 73c | 609.74$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.37 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Aurora | 74c | 534.15$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.51 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3952…c2b4backed Team Lynx | 15c | 527.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked Aurora | 70c | 516.23$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.51 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Aurora | 53c | 469.39$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.61 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Lynx | 23c | 458.81$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa23…33e0backed Team Lynx | 15c | 451.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed Team Lynx | 49c | 397.22$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Lynx | 22c | 390.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Team Lynx | 13c | 339.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Team Lynx | 7c | 333.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed Team Lynx | 14c | 331.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…0c65backed Aurora | 29c | 327.17$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.41 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98d…c479backed Aurora | 41c | 305$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.55 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee3…7c36backed Aurora | 54c | 297.52$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.09 | 241 | 31.5%76 W · 165 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Aurora | 75c | 262.67$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Aurora | 69c | 240.59$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 30c | 235.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked Aurora | 38c | 220$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.2 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Aurora | 72c | 199.37$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Aurora | 42c | 189.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Team Lynx | 14c | 167.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Aurora | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Team Lynx | 8c | 127.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…6b39backed Aurora | 34c | 120$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0f…36c9backed Team Lynx | 53c | 114.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Aurora | 39c | 110$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Aurora | 74c | 102.87$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Aurora | 42c | 100.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Aurora | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | +26.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora | 37c | 98.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Lynx | 40c | 84.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Aurora | 38c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Aurora | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 245 | 27.3%67 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 64c | 66.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed Team Lynx | 27c | 65.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -9.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Team Lynx | 27c | 53.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Aurora | 62c | 53.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…aa0bbacked Team Lynx | 72c | 47.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Aurora | 52c | 44.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d66…ffc9backed Aurora | 45c | 42.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1676…ab19backed Aurora | 54c | 42.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Aurora | 57c | 41.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…3781backed Aurora | 74c | 41.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Aurora | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Aurora | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…01e9backed Aurora | 46c | 35.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed Aurora | 70c | 34.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Aurora | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…d384backed Aurora | 36c | 31.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed Aurora | 64c | 31.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Lynx | 38c | 31.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed Aurora | 46c | 30.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Team Lynx | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked Aurora | 70c | 29.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Team Lynx | 35c | 29.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da9…0a78backed Aurora | 56c | 28.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed Aurora | 59c | 28.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Team Lynx | 50c | 28.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Aurora | 72c | 23.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…0021backed Aurora | 77c | 21.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed Aurora | 49c | 21.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed Aurora | 74c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Lynx (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Lynx (+1.5)Team Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.