Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1415defeb6a0e9f962190d606d84f2a72a048a2780272cc1f65d958bc8795ec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Aurora, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7600…4478backed Aurora | 42c | 8,917$3,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,759.96 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Lynx | 50c | 5,212$2,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,624.64 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Team Lynx | 58c | 3,612$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.96 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora | 52c | 2,922$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.43 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed Aurora | 49c | 1,544$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Lynx | 66c | 767.88$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.63 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 64c | 669.15$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.69 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Team Lynx | 31c | 612.27$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.46 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…2812backed Team Lynx | 16c | 595.07$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.11 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Lynx | 49c | 581.53$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.43 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Team Lynx | 63c | 578.85$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.67 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Team Lynx | 52c | 575.8$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.26 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 53c | 482.96$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.12 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 77c | 468.41$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.49 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Lynx | 65c | 468.09$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.59 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Team Lynx | 26c | 398.9$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.43 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed Team Lynx | 24c | 398.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.41 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Lynx | 31c | 306.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.31 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked Team Lynx | 16c | 296.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.27 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Team Lynx | 46c | 291.13$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.97 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Team Lynx | 60c | 274$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…26a1backed Team Lynx | 48c | 261.62$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.33 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Aurora | 77c | 255.65$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.24 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…538dbacked Team Lynx | 57c | 255$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.84 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Team Lynx | 63c | 212.1$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…4fa3backed Team Lynx | 46c | 207.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Lynx | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora | 31c | 197.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked Aurora | 51c | 190.38$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 216 | 50.9%110 W · 106 L | -25.3wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…9377backed Team Lynx | 57c | 171.24$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Aurora | 74c | 157.19$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.75 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Team Lynx | 51c | 146.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Team Lynx | 15c | 144.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.17 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d5…7c98backed Aurora | 79c | 125.23$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Lynx | 33c | 118.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Team Lynx | 72c | 102.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Aurora | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea4…4d25backed Team Lynx | 56c | 97.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Team Lynx | 31c | 93.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…515dbacked Team Lynx | 23c | 82.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Team Lynx | 50c | 80.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Team Lynx | 46c | 77.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…6ce4backed Aurora | 51c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Aurora | 67c | 64.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed Team Lynx | 52c | 63.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Aurora | 36c | 52.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Lynx | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Team Lynx | 54c | 48.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Team Lynx | 29c | 47.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…b4c8backed Aurora | 22c | 47.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Team Lynx | 63c | 45.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed Team Lynx | 55c | 38.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -17.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Aurora | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Aurora | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora | 70c | 29.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f9…1194backed Aurora | 49c | 28.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…4284backed Aurora | 53c | 27.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Team Lynx | 70c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb01…0442backed Aurora | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Team Lynx | 80c | 12.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Lynx (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Lynx (+1.5)Team Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.