Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Lynx (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28ce9ebd09aa1987810fd6bb2d12381b37cd568be3027d486361e0eff514f1b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Lynx | 17c | 4,988$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.51 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Lynx | 7c | 3,500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Lynx | 7c | 3,144$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.1 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03d…07e1backed Team Lynx | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…2effbacked Team Lynx | 18c | 1,492$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.89 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 11c | 1,341$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.17 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Lynx | 8c | 1,262$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…2812backed Team Lynx | 15c | 988.96$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.22 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Team Lynx | 8c | 522.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f5…40d7backed Team Lynx | 19c | 499.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked Team Lynx | 21c | 461.85$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 207 | 38.6%80 W · 127 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Team Lynx | 15c | 454.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Team Lynx | 19c | 440.02$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea4…4d25backed Team Lynx | 10c | 399.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked Team Lynx | 20c | 338.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…3096backed Team Lynx | 4c | 330$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae27…6fb2backed Team Lynx | 13c | 296.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Team Lynx | 8c | 285.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked Team Lynx | 10c | 284.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Lynx | 8c | 273.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbfef…5b77backed Team Lynx | 20c | 239.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Team Lynx | 20c | 212.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…368dbacked Team Lynx | 6c | 188.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…b19fbacked Team Lynx | 17c | 188.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Team Lynx | 12c | 161.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Team Lynx | 9c | 148.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Team Lynx | 9c | 145.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…9377backed Team Lynx | 20c | 142.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6d…f901backed Team Lynx | 19c | 139.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Team Lynx | 18c | 130.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Aurora | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d66…ffc9backed Team Lynx | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…d1d1backed Team Lynx | 19c | 91.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Aurora | 80c | 39.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 125 | 68%85 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Lynx (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Lynx (+1.5)Team Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.