World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c2d46a940e87e6a118e9458d76992a1bad10c34c238af32047a4beeea2348da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 482.01$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.01 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 321.87$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.11 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 183.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 136.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 39c | 127.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…3b86backed Yes | 49c | 121.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 42c | 118.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 43c | 117.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 55c | 109.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 61c | 109.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 106.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 95.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 89.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 87.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 61c | 78.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 43c | 73.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 39c | 62.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 60.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 53c | 56.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 52c | 53.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 39c | 53.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 51.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 44.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 38c | 43.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 50c | 41.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 38.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 37.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 56c | 37.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…8662backed Yes | 54c | 36.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 31.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 31.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…dff7backed Yes | 74c | 31.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 30.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 30.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 30.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 37c | 30.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 68c | 29.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 58c | 28.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 51c | 26.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…3a40backed Yes | 57c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 43c | 25.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 23.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 55c | 18.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.