Serie A · resolved market
Will Bologna vs. Torino end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c3bb05bf0d50d28555f6c6cadae000d8942a14fb99359bde7dfaca01bf49722
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 29c | 10,000$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,100 | 212 | 58.5%124 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 9,956$7,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,067.66 | 2,579 | 45.6%1,175 W · 1,404 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 1,464$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.89 | 2,023 | 39.4%798 W · 1,225 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 47c | 1,406$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.63 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6b…a1bebacked No | 72c | 1,406$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Yes | 49c | 1,012$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…623cbacked Yes | 74c | 836.33$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.36 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.29 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8accbacked Yes | 28c | 711.65$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.39 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 27c | 615.81$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.54 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 33c | 480.49$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.29 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 72c | 408.26$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.84 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf170…5009backed Yes | 75c | 376.73$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Yes | 29c | 345$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.95 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Yes | 28c | 200$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b3b1backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…a3f3backed Yes | 76c | 161.46$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 71c | 139.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 44c | 118.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 431 | 58.5%252 W · 179 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe052…3108backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…2300backed Yes | 62c | 80.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…745bbacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +176.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…3d78backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Yes | 70c | 62.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…1754backed No | 44c | 57.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked No | 74c | 45.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d0…4201backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna vs. Torino end in a draw?this page
- Will Bologna win on 2025-10-29?No won
- Will Torino win on 2025-10-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.