Tennis · resolved market
ITF Brisbane: Belle Thompson vs Natsuki Yoshimoto
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c5cc88e8b7e6093f7ac163f05e21fb5f69ead2ecaa39c8b43af885c032b5ff1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Belle Thompsonof Belle Thompson, Natsuki Yoshimoto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Belle Thompson | 23c | 8,718$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,737.77 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 78c | 7,810$6,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,126.75 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Belle Thompson | 26c | 1,065$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.08 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Belle Thompson | 19c | 1,006$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.56 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 68c | 620.85$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.18 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 73c | 598.45$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.66 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 60c | 416$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 70c | 346.44$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.51 | 443 | 49%217 W · 226 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…9e95backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 77c | 255.62$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.83 | 736 | 48.1%354 W · 382 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 65c | 153.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Belle Thompson | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 449 | 52.8%237 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 74c | 120.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Belle Thompson | 32c | 120.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea09…0803backed Belle Thompson | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Belle Thompson | 38c | 90$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…3abfbacked Belle Thompson | 18c | 88.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 267 | 34.1%91 W · 176 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Belle Thompson | 46c | 73.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Belle Thompson | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Belle Thompson | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Belle Thompson | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc6…d4ffbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Belle Thompson | 26c | 50.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…2c2cbacked Belle Thompson | 22c | 50.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Belle Thompson | 72c | 31.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…189abacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 74c | 18.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 71c | 17.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 74c | 16.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 298 | 51.7%154 W · 144 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.