MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cd3d6c7c5d6d49fde9de17236e51d51f99453c2bd0f4f689aef17aee27b2814
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 8,758$4,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,028.46 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 4,945$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,274.7 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 74c | 2,515$1,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.19 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 26c | 2,500$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 852.2$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.01 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 838$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.48 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b54…d382backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 455.43$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.5 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 61c | 455.42$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.61 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 418.17$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.36 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 305$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.95 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 134.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94eb…fcdfbacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Atlanta Braves | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 308 | 48.1%148 W · 160 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 88.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 21c | 58.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 55.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 193 | 41.5%80 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a89…eddabacked Atlanta Braves | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 242 | 50%121 W · 121 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.