MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cd59ff39be47359e29ae4df3e895e48d40ae0b649a6f69d8ceb4a22adeaeb68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 45c | 15,000$6,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,703.15 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4e…0232backed Under | 50c | 12,010$6,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,005.06 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 4,379$2,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,927.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 55c | 3,153$1,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.57 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 2,749$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.47 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 50c | 2,501$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.27 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 55c | 2,145$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 51c | 1,647$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.94 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 1,402$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 1,193$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,005$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 50c | 908$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 50c | 380$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 43c | 350.87$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.87 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…ce68backed Under | 53c | 237.74$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 43c | 233$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 232$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 43c | 229.53$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 53c | 227.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.63 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 224.68$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…4d94backed Under | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 50c | 195.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 55c | 168.28$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 55c | 130.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 128.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 54c | 107.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 52c | 105.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 50c | 67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Over | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 49c | 55.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 60c | 54.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 43c | 42.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 41.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 31.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 50c | 29.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Under | 56c | 27.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Under | 46c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed Under | 53c | 22.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…db17backed Over | 47c | 22.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 57c | 22.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Under | 58c | 21.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa95…d397backed Under | 60c | 20.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 53c | 19.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.