South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cdf82125018a3bcb89cfe6468ada60f0148a05520ed6bae76794258a0325b01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CF Cruz Azulof CF Cruz Azul, Club Necaxa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Club Necaxa | 51c | 3,572$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.09 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CF Cruz Azul | 54c | 1,181$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.82 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed CF Cruz Azul | 49c | 969.4$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.39 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked CF Cruz Azul | 55c | 428.47$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.07 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed CF Cruz Azul | 54c | 312.48$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.36 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Club Necaxa | 45c | 310.61$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.39 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked CF Cruz Azul | 49c | 184.46$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.55 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Club Necaxa | 44c | 180$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Club Necaxa | 34c | 169.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed CF Cruz Azul | 68c | 169.94$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed CF Cruz Azul | 49c | 147.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…9c4fbacked CF Cruz Azul | 50c | 136.15$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x795a…2befbacked Club Necaxa | 51c | 135.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed CF Cruz Azul | 49c | 131.11$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed CF Cruz Azul | 52c | 121.42$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked CF Cruz Azul | 41c | 119.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked CF Cruz Azul | 49c | 98.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…a4aabacked Club Necaxa | 51c | 95.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed CF Cruz Azul | 59c | 87.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed CF Cruz Azul | 49c | 86.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 1,303 | 50.1%653 W · 650 L | -14.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Club Necaxa | 45c | 77.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…6596backed CF Cruz Azul | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed CF Cruz Azul | 50c | 53.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…6478backed CF Cruz Azul | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed CF Cruz Azul | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked CF Cruz Azul | 49c | 39.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…af5ebacked CF Cruz Azul | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Club Necaxa | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed CF Cruz Azul | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed CF Cruz Azul | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed CF Cruz Azul | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed CF Cruz Azul | 58c | 35.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68f2…442abacked CF Cruz Azul | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked CF Cruz Azul | 48c | 32.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed CF Cruz Azul | 49c | 31.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed CF Cruz Azul | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Club Necaxa | 45c | 28.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked CF Cruz Azul | 76c | 25.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed CF Cruz Azul | 45c | 24.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked CF Cruz Azul | 55c | 20.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)this page
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Necaxa: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 3.5Over won
- CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-2.5)CF Cruz Azul won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.