Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cf8576d7c0c0004ab720e57f32df6a8b82195c3c2869028b3545f7d784d0ff9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 0c | 13,646$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 512.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 3c | 505.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 410.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 387.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 5c | 383.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 333.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…6d86backed Yes | 7c | 238.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed Yes | 7c | 203.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed Yes | 20c | 171.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 9c | 145.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 13c | 132.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 23c | 131.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x231a…7d04backed Yes | 11c | 116.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 18c | 101.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 17c | 95.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 19c | 91.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 77.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 19c | 65.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 17c | 62.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 58.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 49.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 48.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 76c | 40.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 77c | 39.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 78c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.