Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb8a7861e2ae8e6b5d6b55ef433c646508738aae18c94d845bfed6c4ea70820a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 70c | 683.05$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.33 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 41c | 646.07$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.08 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 29c | 542.81$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.97 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 20c | 541.56$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.54 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 58c | 475.71$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.55 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 456.25$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 17c | 453.58$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed Yes | 38c | 390.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.96 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 57c | 388.03$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.96 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 51c | 318.08$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.89 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…e933backed No | 73c | 306.68$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 63c | 282.89$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.77 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 59c | 276.51$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.92 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf14a…86d2backed Yes | 70c | 262.9$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.51 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 42c | 241.01$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.25 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 66c | 232.91$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.47 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 31c | 219.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.84 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 38c | 213.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.14 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8c…36a3backed No | 69c | 210.49$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed No | 74c | 199.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 41c | 186.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.65 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 11c | 183.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 33c | 176.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 157.35$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 34c | 146.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.83 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 142.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.15 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 27c | 137.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 134.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 40c | 117.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 26c | 112.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 66c | 101.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…9ca4backed Yes | 47c | 101.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 26c | 100.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 64c | 100.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed Yes | 47c | 100.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 38c | 99.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 96.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 93.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 62c | 91.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 73c | 89.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 88.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 88.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 46c | 87.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 26c | 82.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 71c | 82.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 28c | 81.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…d380backed Yes | 59c | 78.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 38c | 77.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…95f4backed Yes | 39c | 76.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 75.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 26c | 74.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 27c | 73.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 32c | 73.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 32c | 73.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 69c | 72.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 42c | 67.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 38c | 64.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 59.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddb…4b77backed Yes | 26c | 58.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 58.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 54c | 58.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 20c | 55.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 64c | 54.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9481…b947backed Yes | 80c | 49.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 60c | 46.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bd…ece2backed Yes | 41c | 45.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 64c | 44.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 54c | 44.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 29c | 42.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…d196backed No | 74c | 42.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 47c | 41.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e1…1b93backed Yes | 33c | 41.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes | 29c | 39.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 36c | 39.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 51c | 39.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 38c | 39.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…175bbacked Yes | 37c | 38.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 36.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 28c | 36.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 36c | 35.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 32.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 72c | 32.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d03…b38bbacked Yes | 35c | 32.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…f35abacked Yes | 43c | 31.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 24 | 91.7%22 W · 2 L | +5.8wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 30.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 68c | 28.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 68c | 28.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…d586backed No | 79c | 28.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39bb…54b3backed No | 80c | 25.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…6d86backed No | 64c | 23.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.