Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec4f8effa9657cf8a34a12349250ce4c0147890e559fbb0f6154535de1fb6ae8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,597$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.85 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 37c | 840.02$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.11 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 77c | 651.48$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 54c | 538.15$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.27 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…43b6backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 457.16$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 408.32$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 28c | 338.54$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 28c | 301.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 34c | 251.73$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 47c | 228.62$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.3 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.61 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 222.75$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 62c | 195.38$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 46c | 193.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 23c | 180.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 13c | 180.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 180.59$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…bd87backed Yes | 68c | 142.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 68c | 140.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 35c | 135.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 45c | 123.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 123.7$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 123.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 118.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 117.67$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 110.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 47c | 107.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 58c | 105.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 104.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed No | 53c | 98.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 33c | 91.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 37c | 90.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee5d…4143backed Yes | 53c | 89.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed Yes | 27c | 89.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x003a…485cbacked Yes | 33c | 82.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 42c | 80.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 67c | 74.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 67c | 74.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 25c | 74.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 72c | 69.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 69.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 63c | 66.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 33c | 65.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed Yes | 32c | 65.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 29c | 64.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 57.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 56.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 61c | 55.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 34c | 54.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 53c | 54.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 51c | 53.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 34c | 53.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 52.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 71c | 51.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 37c | 50.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 48.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 31c | 47.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…a384backed Yes | 61c | 47.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d03…b38bbacked Yes | 42c | 46.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 39c | 46.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 78c | 46.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 51c | 45.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 45.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 32c | 44.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 65c | 42.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 65c | 41.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 41.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes | 34c | 40.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 76c | 39.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 32c | 39.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…3633backed No | 42c | 37.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…661bbacked Yes | 38c | 37.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 51c | 36.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 74c | 35.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 53c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 64c | 32.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 32c | 31.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…758ebacked Yes | 37c | 31.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 31.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 64c | 30.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 43c | 30.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 70c | 29.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…bc32backed Yes | 49c | 29.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 68c | 29.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 64c | 28.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…6d86backed No | 72c | 28.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 37c | 28.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 69c | 25.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.