Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe20669de644bf3cbb9694a20ba677b5f70e79459fd089b95eef123595290bbc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 22c | 3,248$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.23 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 20c | 789.15$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.48 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 545.48$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 12c | 522.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 13c | 487.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 448.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 446.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 77c | 442.47$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 4c | 385.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 16c | 287.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 7c | 226.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 80c | 200.68$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 193.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 172.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 14c | 131.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 10c | 125.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 78c | 122.34$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 21c | 118.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 16c | 111.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 12c | 104.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 14c | 101.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 94.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 82.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 78.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 79c | 76.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes | 14c | 69.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…661bbacked Yes | 17c | 68.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 78c | 63.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 30c | 62.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 57.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 78c | 56.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 22c | 54.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 80c | 51.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabc6…acb4backed No | 76c | 49.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 79c | 49.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 76c | 48.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 46.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 28c | 46.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 37.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed No | 77c | 37.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 79c | 36.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 79c | 36.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 34.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 76c | 31.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 79c | 31.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked No | 78c | 29.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…6d86backed No | 75c | 27.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 78c | 22.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 73c | 21.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae2…cd50backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…23a6backed No | 75c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 79c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 79c | 18.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8a…3430backed No | 79c | 13.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.