CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Butterfly - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cf9c35bf98eba33ff794509e21e358b3af9dd9962b3114df52b266f08a2a72f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Butterflyof Lavked, Butterfly
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked Lavked | 42c | 12,076$5,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,050.08 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddc…c874backed Butterfly | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.98 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa80c…5a6dbacked Butterfly | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.98 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked Butterfly | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.99 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7460…de6ebacked Butterfly | 56c | 2,500$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.99 | 439 | 51.7%227 W · 212 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Lavked | 42c | 2,079$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.69 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa28a…01c5backed Butterfly | 57c | 1,745$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.98 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Butterfly | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lavked | 33c | 1,403$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.08 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Butterfly | 65c | 1,200$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.99 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lavked | 44c | 930.57$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.45 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Butterfly | 55c | 799.26$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.67 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed Lavked | 36c | 666.57$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.07 | 519 | 42.2%219 W · 300 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed Butterfly | 45c | 598.01$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.12 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed Lavked | 52c | 549.24$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.35 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54e…4a99backed Butterfly | 69c | 529.07$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.21 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Lavked | 28c | 485.07$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.46 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Lavked | 32c | 287.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.81 | 890 | 46.1%410 W · 480 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…9a43backed Butterfly | 32c | 283.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.52 | 85 | 70.6%60 W · 25 L | +18.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed Lavked | 38c | 270.06$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 406 | 39.4%160 W · 246 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Lavked | 33c | 240.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…935fbacked Lavked | 33c | 235.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 284 | 54.9%156 W · 128 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Lavked | 46c | 196$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Butterfly | 67c | 193.47$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 610 | 54.9%335 W · 275 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Lavked | 45c | 188.02$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Butterfly | 72c | 175.78$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Lavked | 39c | 164$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Butterfly | 56c | 159.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…c422backed Lavked | 18c | 150.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f25…d5debacked Butterfly | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Lavked | 34c | 140$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 514 | 46.9%241 W · 273 L | -22.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…4994backed Butterfly | 68c | 138.46$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…0566backed Butterfly | 70c | 127.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 96 | 62.5%60 W · 36 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed Butterfly | 35c | 127$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 276 | 47.1%130 W · 146 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Lavked | 42c | 117.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 312 | 41.3%129 W · 183 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Butterfly | 46c | 103.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Butterfly | 39c | 102.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd84d…cc32backed Butterfly | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed Lavked | 45c | 98.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…3eb8backed Butterfly | 66c | 98.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…e901backed Lavked | 71c | 72.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Lavked | 24c | 71.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Lavked | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Butterfly | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…1071backed Butterfly | 34c | 59.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Butterfly | 34c | 59.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…a618backed Butterfly | 35c | 57.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Butterfly | 49c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeeae…a2fabacked Butterfly | 71c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Butterfly | 41c | 48.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Lavked | 34c | 45.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 418 | 53.6%224 W · 194 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Lavked | 61c | 43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Lavked | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 207 | 42.5%88 W · 119 L | -17.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Lavked | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…7143backed Butterfly | 46c | 29.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9434…d8d8backed Lavked | 44c | 28.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Butterfly | 56c | 26.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5f…31d1backed Butterfly | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Butterfly | 52c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 399 | 55.4%221 W · 178 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Butterfly - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group StageLavked won
- Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Butterfly - Map 1 WinnerLavked won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.