Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d05c1239244b7b469267e5b7eb030a2d8dbca6305e7b2fa6a5962b1e7d5efdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 209.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 156.46$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 70c | 152.57$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 45c | 149.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 53c | 137.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 114.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 113.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 39c | 101.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 73c | 99.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 39c | 94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 29c | 74.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 47c | 66.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 65.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 63.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 62c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 51.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 58c | 49.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 49.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 31c | 49.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 49c | 46.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 43c | 46.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 45.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 61c | 40.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 70c | 39.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 41c | 37.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 41c | 36.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 34.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 45c | 34.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 49c | 33.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 33.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 59c | 31.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 48c | 30.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…9f70backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 54c | 29.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 28.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 26.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 48c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 60c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 44c | 24.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 63c | 22.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 52c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 21.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 57c | 21.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 60c | 21.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 21.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.