TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

FK Liepāja vs. FK Austria Wien: 1st Half O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,482
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,482 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…d7a0backed Over56c3,260$1,826 inWon+$1,434.383033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under46c2,348$1,080 inLost-$1,080.332,33341.7%972 W · 1,361 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Under44c568.18$250 inLost-$25015544.5%69 W · 86 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde24…2b2fbacked Under44c568.18$250 inLost-$2503447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over51c447.58$230 inWon+$217.2137446.8%175 W · 199 L+27.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over50c316.27$159 inWon+$157.6579532.2%256 W · 539 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under42c229.64$97 inLost-$96.742,16737.6%815 W · 1,352 L+5.7wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over51c200.08$103 inWon+$97.3737046.5%172 W · 198 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under44c135.93$60 inLost-$59.8138453.1%204 W · 180 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under46c122.96$56 inLost-$56.2997346%448 W · 525 L-4.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Under44c120.45$53 inLost-$532657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+34.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Under44c115.91$51 inLost-$511675%12 W · 4 L+4.8wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+81.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Under44c102.27$45 inLost-$451070%7 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+58%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Under44c97.73$43 inLost-$431070%7 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick42cpaid+75%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeff7…fc2bbacked Over59c65.25$38 inWon+$26.75812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick38cpaid-78.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over53c64$34 inWon+$30.127554.9%151 W · 124 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x474a…a275backed Over58c51.72$30 inWon+$21.721030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0435…a10ebacked Under45c48.84$22 inLost-$21.982634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe79f…0204backed Over59c33.9$20 inWon+$13.92045%9 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4061…dde5backed Over47c31.91$15 inWon+$16.916328.6%18 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb262…9b98backed Over65c30.77$20 inWon+$10.77757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick70cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdae…6ad2backed Over71c28.17$20 inWon+$8.1720660.2%124 W · 82 L-15.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-11.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4155…fa41backed Over78c28$22 inWon+$6.287767.5%52 W · 25 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+3.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.