Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Liepāja vs. FK Austria Wien: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x910693196215980e43c2863f8d2d4bf5f210b5f3f2546402a7cb6e8207da8ba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41d2…d7c9backed Over | 54c | 4,592$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…3cbdbacked Over | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 52c | 2,919$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.78 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 53c | 2,395$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.31 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 49c | 1,274$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.95 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 54c | 1,170$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 1,142$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.98 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 45c | 1,107$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 48c | 1,100$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.99 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 44c | 1,037$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.04 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…2b2fbacked Under | 50c | 909.76$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.88 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 51c | 896.36$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.36 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 45c | 650.94$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.02 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Over | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 53c | 359.71$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.74 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 45c | 270.04$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.97 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 44c | 242.02$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.53 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 41c | 233.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.2 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 47c | 220$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.15 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 43c | 201.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 31c | 197.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 54c | 184.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 50c | 182.22$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…d9a5backed Over | 55c | 181.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Over | 56c | 179.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 49c | 164.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 54c | 151.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 47c | 96.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…73fabacked Over | 65c | 88.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Over | 58c | 86.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…b567backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 46c | 84.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…32ddbacked Over | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 52c | 80.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…a10ebacked Under | 41c | 72.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 47c | 69.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…a119backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 48c | 60.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…1cf3backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…4817backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 38c | 35.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 47c | 33.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4db…e401backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -77%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…0204backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Under | 49c | 23.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Austria Wien: O/U 2.5this page
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Austria Wien: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Austria Wien: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Austria Wien: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Austria Wien: FK Austria Wien O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Austria Wien: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Austria Wien: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Austria Wien: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Austria Wien: O/U 4.5Under won
- FK Liepāja vs. FK Austria Wien: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FK Austria Wien (-1.5)FK Austria Wien won
- Spread: FK Austria Wien (-2.5)FK Liepāja won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.