Champions League · resolved market
Will Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d215dd622967475f9490cf2b2b2daf9850641b54dffbe99e45c6911d88e3938
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7690…74e1backed Yes | 16c | 22,219$3,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,555 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Yes | 15c | 4,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b8f7backed Yes | 16c | 3,125$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,946$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.87 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,203$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.38 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…7984backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe831…a42abacked Yes | 16c | 570$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…45e0backed Yes | 6c | 509.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 15c | 439.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 15c | 425.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Yes | 16c | 331.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 5c | 319.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 17.8%19 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…7147backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 15c | 308$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked Yes | 15c | 260$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…6977backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Yes | 16c | 211.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 9c | 181.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…7af0backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Yes | 15c | 153.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…94b8backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 16c | 137.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…928abacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 14c | 105.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 15c | 101.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Yes | 15c | 78.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 15c | 66.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…c9e4backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f0…b011backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344c…4eb5backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…52dbbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…0a4abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcb…4381backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…ad0fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Madrid CF vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?this page
- Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-20?No won
- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.