Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d216570b4623fcc54c2230f9cfb221dbc02ecb41ba8f71d2e608c2258146aea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 14c | 1,231$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.43 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 8c | 653.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 470.23$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 36c | 468.39$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.13 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 402.48$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 367.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 67c | 356.65$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.84 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 351.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 345.79$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 278.68$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.16 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 70c | 264.39$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 13c | 253.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 5c | 252.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 5c | 252.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 71c | 245.93$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.36 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 45c | 235.48$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 54c | 235.01$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.63 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 45c | 207.43$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 15c | 194.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 34c | 192.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.98 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 51c | 189.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.59 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 67c | 183.49$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.33 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 179.67$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 48c | 177.02$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 158.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 68c | 150.31$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 143.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.36 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 48c | 132.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 31c | 131.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 56c | 130.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 120.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 113.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…8ad6backed No | 68c | 113.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 113$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 58c | 105.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 47c | 99.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 77c | 97.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 73c | 97.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 76c | 92.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 35c | 89.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 46c | 88.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 67c | 86.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 70c | 85.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 45c | 75.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…7387backed Yes | 34c | 74.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 72.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 39c | 72.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 39c | 72.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 53c | 71.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 41c | 71.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 60c | 70.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 58c | 65.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 72c | 62.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 51c | 61.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 58.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 39c | 58.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bc…6b09backed Yes | 55c | 57.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 50c | 56.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…2501backed No | 57c | 56.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb610…c0eabacked No | 59c | 55.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 45c | 46.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 42c | 46.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 50c | 46.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 52c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 46c | 43.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 33c | 42.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 29c | 42.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…481abacked No | 56c | 42.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 69c | 41.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 29c | 39.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf300…4329backed No | 59c | 38.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 52c | 36.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 52c | 36.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 72c | 35.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…4dd2backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 64c | 34.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 55c | 34.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0343…cb9fbacked Yes | 43c | 34.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7c…1396backed Yes | 44c | 32.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 71c | 31.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 59c | 31.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…2778backed No | 45c | 30.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 36c | 30.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 78c | 29.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 41c | 28.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 55c | 28.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08e…9594backed Yes | 55c | 27.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…7448backed No | 65c | 24.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 47c | 24.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 49c | 24.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…111cbacked Yes | 50c | 24.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 64c | 23.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733a…7251backed No | 66c | 22.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.