TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,131
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,537

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,131 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc018…b251backed Yes1c975.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5511138.7%43 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes34c501.72$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.111,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c455.81$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.4517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No71c368.56$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.611874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No68c358.8$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes54c353.51$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.6865043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes14c349.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.996,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c333.33$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.987,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No63c317.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.452,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes23c312.26$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.28,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed No78c291.88$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.594731.9%15 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No71c199.12$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.81,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No70c195.31$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.172,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a31…335fbacked No74c189.16$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.366163.9%39 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes37c186.39$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9618740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8c…e526backed Yes28c174.29$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.388727.6%24 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No76c170.41$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5819060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes31c153.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0830046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ec…0a11backed No65c148.48$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes24c147.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1739535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c141.74$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.331,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes30c139.97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.531,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No67c138.18$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.119259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes36c117.52$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6729640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No73c116.09$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.869176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No63c106.78$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.591,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No79c103.55$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3227376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No65c101.81$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.513,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No73c98.19$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.826566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c96.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.783,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe84…20e0backed No73c95.82$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.175154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No73c92.84$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.478969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf585…aae1backed Yes30c90.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.681931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd96b…7f20backed Yes35c85.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.983030%9 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No74c81.19$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9598571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No76c79.08$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8730442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes25c78.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.482419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc80…56a7backed Yes26c71.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5216412.2%20 W · 144 L-0.5wins0.00per pick12cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No63c70.64$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4531542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes27c69.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5321440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes34c68.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5813930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes31c66.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9845619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No72c66.5$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6552571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a3…fc4abacked No65c63.9$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.113059.2%77 W · 53 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes40c60.52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.282,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No70c60.03$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0127167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No63c59.49$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.974,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes27c57.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.331,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes33c56.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5131029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6bc…6b09backed Yes30c54.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.49540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95d4…839abacked Yes32c52.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8628119.9%56 W · 225 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No73c51.77$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1922675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes34c50.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.323022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes25c50.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.481679%15 W · 152 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1626236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1941733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes34c49.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0892028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes37c49.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9145236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x017c…00c3backed Yes36c47.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2125042.4%106 W · 144 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb4…695fbacked No77c45.43$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.245773.7%42 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes35c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7511038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No74c44.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.916575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed Yes41c44.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5920353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked Yes33c44.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5244147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes40c42.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9533450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes35c41.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6659125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1b3d…8ad6backed Yes35c40.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.021723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-52.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.748672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf69a…90f7backed Yes33c37.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.422055%11 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes31c37.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4913424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed Yes34c36.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2818845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No74c36.25$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3118272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No68c35.61$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.411652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75f…17c0backed Yes36c35.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.779443.6%41 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes32c35.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.141,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No34c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.154867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No65c34.93$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.231,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2521068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd138…aac0backed Yes34c30.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.549221.7%20 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-38.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e08…59d2backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.25644.6%25 W · 31 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No61c29.02$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.391,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x174c…4351backed Yes39c27.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.526028.3%17 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa48a…fa82backed No74c26.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.752740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb81…7b82backed No69c26.2$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1913053.1%69 W · 61 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4925…8f6cbacked No61c25.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.019858.2%57 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b5…5aa7backed No64c24.88$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0816242.6%69 W · 93 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No74c24.69$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3718452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6154…0404backed No75c23.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.853580%28 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No63c22.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2376371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a9…2227backed No71c21.88$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.357173.2%52 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed No70c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.438748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ef…0cf9backed No69c21.16$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.526464.1%41 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No76c20.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9297570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe166…7227backed No70c20.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.249779.4%77 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a5c…1d38backed No77c20.42$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.732576%19 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa72a…61debacked No77c20.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.591376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae9e…b462backed No66c20.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.92771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31e2…a655backed No73c20.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.456275.8%47 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.