Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3287d41820a349dd20ee6de3f183bb0adeb50ac997bd9e71c00ea2c7d20c4ead
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 1c | 975.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 34c | 501.72$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.11 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 455.81$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 71c | 368.56$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 358.8$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 54c | 353.51$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.68 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 349.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 333.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 317.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.45 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 312.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed No | 78c | 291.88$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 199.12$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 195.31$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 74c | 189.16$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 37c | 186.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 28c | 174.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 76c | 170.41$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 31c | 153.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ec…0a11backed No | 65c | 148.48$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 24c | 147.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 141.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 30c | 139.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 67c | 138.18$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 36c | 117.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 73c | 116.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 106.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 103.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 101.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 73c | 98.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 96.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 73c | 95.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 73c | 92.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 30c | 90.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed Yes | 35c | 85.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 81.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 76c | 79.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 25c | 78.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 26c | 71.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 63c | 70.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 27c | 69.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 34c | 68.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 31c | 66.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 72c | 66.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 65c | 63.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 60.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 70c | 60.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 59.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 27c | 57.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 33c | 56.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bc…6b09backed Yes | 30c | 54.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 32c | 52.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 73c | 51.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 34c | 50.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 25c | 50.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 34c | 49.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 37c | 49.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 36c | 47.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 77c | 45.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 74c | 44.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed Yes | 41c | 44.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 33c | 44.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 40c | 42.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 41.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…8ad6backed Yes | 35c | 40.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69a…90f7backed Yes | 33c | 37.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 31c | 37.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 34c | 36.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 74c | 36.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 68c | 35.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 36c | 35.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 32c | 35.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 65c | 34.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 34c | 30.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 61c | 29.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 39c | 27.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 74c | 26.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 69c | 26.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 61c | 25.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 64c | 24.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 74c | 24.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6154…0404backed No | 75c | 23.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 63c | 22.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 71c | 21.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 69c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 20.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 70c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…1d38backed No | 77c | 20.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…61debacked No | 77c | 20.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…b462backed No | 66c | 20.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 73c | 20.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.