Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d2fdc19458ae5df695ec2ee23905f72f310ebf7c057789534be4e97d032247b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5485…0864backed Yes | 0c | 42,754$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 2c | 1,203$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 12c | 628.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 69c | 395.88$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.61 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 23c | 312.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 290.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 267.41$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 257$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 29c | 211.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 176.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 28c | 121.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 105$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 104.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 103.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 100.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…dd89backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 74c | 84.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd630…28edbacked Yes | 30c | 82.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 74.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 29c | 51.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 70c | 49.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 46.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7666…532abacked Yes | 28c | 46.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 72c | 45.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 44.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 30c | 41.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…60fcbacked No | 79c | 35.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed Yes | 30c | 33.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 32.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 75c | 29.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 27.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.