Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d472186ae9ffb5885fe9072ddec78d2c609e8d3ad3a5380316e1e8dd272189d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 929.95$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 31c | 578.24$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.57 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…36a2backed Yes | 79c | 466.48$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 40c | 406.7$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.21 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 18c | 248.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 231.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 216.8$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 200.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 28c | 182$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.94 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 15c | 171.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.28 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 148.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 141.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 139.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 124$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 123.31$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 63c | 110.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 109.94$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 101.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 19c | 100.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 97.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 71c | 97.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 57c | 94.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 39c | 89.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 81.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 76.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 68c | 68.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 68.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 58.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 28c | 58.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 30c | 57.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 45c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 24c | 55.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 52.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 29c | 52.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 80c | 52.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 33c | 50.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 50.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 30c | 43.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 40.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 54c | 38.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 33c | 38.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 70c | 36.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 59c | 35.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…2658backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 44c | 33.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…5710backed Yes | 39c | 31.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 40c | 30.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…cd79backed No | 61c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 77c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 70c | 25.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 67c | 24.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…4e2abacked No | 73c | 24.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 84°F or higher on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.