Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe041df2970dc4edf50d4173a2d1d3e58c1b1888ae7cbb99076a74bd66aeb4fbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,031$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…36a2backed Yes | 78c | 798.84$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 337.37$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 17c | 239.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 231.2$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 13c | 218.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.18 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 203$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 199.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 190.29$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 68c | 167.8$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 50c | 149.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 144.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 52c | 142$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 130.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 20c | 128.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 79c | 125.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 69c | 120.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 64c | 107.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 101.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad2…7e40backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 23c | 91.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 80c | 87.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 54c | 69.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 64.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 51c | 57.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 47c | 55.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 55.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 75c | 53.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 46.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 41.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 28c | 39.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 55c | 38.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 38.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 36.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…2658backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 68c | 30.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…5c60backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 61c | 23.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…5710backed Yes | 49c | 20.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 84°F or higher on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.