Fifa International · resolved market
Will Zambia win on 2025-12-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d6c1a0246cc628b21d027dc785f84526641f49c66a76732de7edc6232d556c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 5c | 15,749$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.96 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…5309backed Yes | 1c | 10,068$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 5c | 5,553$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.36 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 5c | 4,642$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.51 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fe…74dbbacked Yes | 6c | 3,001$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,981$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 5c | 1,750$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 162 | 25.3%41 W · 121 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd476…5c1abacked Yes | 2c | 1,350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…8b3abacked Yes | 5c | 1,013$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1a…b7ecbacked Yes | 5c | 816.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…09a8backed Yes | 5c | 808.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 711.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…1e0bbacked Yes | 5c | 535.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes | 5c | 468.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a8…6b2ebacked Yes | 6c | 457.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c4…1a5ebacked Yes | 5c | 450$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…68e1backed Yes | 5c | 377.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…6e3bbacked Yes | 6c | 340.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…4396backed Yes | 6c | 326.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb97…5356backed Yes | 5c | 306.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 4c | 297.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 4c | 275.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…3d17backed Yes | 6c | 254.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…41a8backed Yes | 4c | 235$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 5c | 230$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd488…aa87backed Yes | 5c | 210$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zambia win on 2025-12-29?this page
- Will Morocco win on 2025-12-29?Yes won
- Will Zambia vs. Morocco end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.