CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d8dd27fa4214f4ab5548dab4d19e74a0f5fa9cbd3483202bdadd3b03a762b90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vitalityof Vitality, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75fc…ee34backed Vitality | 65c | 1,545$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.58 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Astralis | 16c | 1,250$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.62 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Vitality | 77c | 1,241$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.81 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Astralis | 23c | 1,094$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.62 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Astralis | 24c | 753.55$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.58 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…7119backed Astralis | 19c | 701.57$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Vitality | 77c | 662.75$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.7 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad4b…e93dbacked Astralis | 17c | 590$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Vitality | 76c | 503.34$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.47 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Astralis | 22c | 322.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff9…bdc5backed Astralis | 28c | 263.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…04dabacked Astralis | 22c | 257$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3cd3backed Vitality | 78c | 257$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 225 | 60.4%136 W · 89 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd305…4e8bbacked Astralis | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Astralis | 34c | 210.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…bbfabacked Astralis | 13c | 207.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Vitality | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 840 | 37.9%318 W · 522 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Vitality | 78c | 196.32$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb99…5d0fbacked Vitality | 76c | 148.74$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc117…3ed5backed Vitality | 78c | 140.81$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Vitality | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 174 | 62.1%108 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0c…8d39backed Astralis | 13c | 131$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…4705backed Astralis | 22c | 104$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x619f…fc43backed Astralis | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Astralis | 13c | 90.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Astralis | 23c | 81.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Astralis | 16c | 67.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Astralis | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…c111backed Astralis | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…06f2backed Vitality | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed Vitality | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 211 | 41.7%88 W · 123 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…b0bcbacked Vitality | 72c | 55.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb027…888fbacked Astralis | 31c | 54.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Vitality | 78c | 48.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 289 | 64%185 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54dc…58a2backed Vitality | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Vitality | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Astralis - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Astralis (BO3)Vitality won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Astralis - Map 2 WinnerAstralis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.