Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5da2ee27db04b302d1cf2cb25fa18e13e1e1640f00516e83c34e7fbf2110090b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atalanta BCof Atalanta BC, Bologna FC 1909
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Atalanta BC | 18c | 3,680$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,011.14 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Atalanta BC | 18c | 555$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.1 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Atalanta BC | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cb…7b9bbacked Atalanta BC | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf5…0144backed Atalanta BC | 35c | 285.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.86 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Atalanta BC | 72c | 226.25$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bologna FC 1909 | 65c | 182.35$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.19 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Atalanta BC | 19c | 174.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.21 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Atalanta BC | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Atalanta BC | 20c | 125.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.89 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Atalanta BC | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Bologna FC 1909 | 21c | 89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 73c | 70.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Bologna FC 1909 | 70c | 62.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 21.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -63%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.