Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0599f3322737f3abca021ffde78b66cfc3406f6d86b8a865daa311b954f8e41b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 9,476$1,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790.7 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 26c | 8,862$2,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.21 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 77c | 6,406$4,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.03 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 80c | 2,500$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.29 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 229 | 47.6%109 W · 120 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 21c | 912.76$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.13 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Over | 27c | 800$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…23d8backed Under | 79c | 504.86$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Over | 19c | 447.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.21 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b7…8b0cbacked Over | 22c | 435.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 20c | 393.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 325.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 13c | 285.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 74c | 208$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Under | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked Over | 22c | 197.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 20c | 157.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbf…5a09backed Over | 14c | 122.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e7…6031backed Over | 21c | 119.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 73c | 116.11$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…252bbacked Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 74c | 96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 25c | 94.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…99d2backed Over | 19c | 91.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 74c | 89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…aa9abacked Over | 22c | 72.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed Under | 75c | 69.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 16c | 65.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 76c | 65.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Under | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…af02backed Under | 79c | 50.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…81cbbacked Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Over | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6596…b50bbacked Under | 74c | 42.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Over | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…0528backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Under | 79c | 21.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Under | 77c | 20.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)Atalanta BC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.