NFL · resolved market
Will the Lions beat the Bears by 10 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dc867a84fba1c68fc6f021250929df285e286b8613770f60787d118019b7cf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Lions, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d28…978abacked Lions | 55c | 3,645$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Bears | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Bears | 44c | 1,546$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Lions | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Bears | 70c | 341.34$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Bears | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Bears | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Bears | 25c | 133.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.77 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Bears | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…ccbbbacked Lions | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…b8c2backed Lions | 57c | 62.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Bears | 46c | 49.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Lions | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Lions | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.