Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5de78ab44dc0a6abdd1a30c31be2cb9e0b9f2151590b7ca0e105ea79af6149a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 651.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 334.74$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 23c | 274.36$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.5 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 28c | 261.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.98 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 249$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 239.68$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 195.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 127.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 126.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 75c | 126$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 27c | 123.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.42 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 90.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 86.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 78.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 64.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 57.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 56.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 27c | 50.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 47.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 47c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 60c | 45.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 26c | 44.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 30c | 42.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 76c | 39.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 72c | 37.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 71c | 35.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 31.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 28.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 66c | 25.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 80c | 23.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 77c | 20.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 78c | 19.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 72c | 19.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 15.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 14.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C or higher on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.