Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2026-03-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5de96131e2e45111d16b90b250d3a98932d97a849adf13dba19e2745b854f5b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,068 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 22c | 6,745$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 1c | 6,469$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 76c | 5,745$4,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.44 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 24c | 5,124$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.82 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 23c | 4,679$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.17 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 6c | 2,580$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.15 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 2c | 1,967$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…8f73backed Yes | 12c | 1,645$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80b4…a52ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,142$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 967.77$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.75 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Yes | 6c | 951.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +869.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…8228backed Yes | 11c | 803.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -84%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b3…c36cbacked No | 77c | 749.99$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 23c | 723.76$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…33babacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe011…31b1backed No | 74c | 471.7$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7be…9c25backed Yes | 26c | 471.7$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 15c | 452.16$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 23c | 442.09$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed Yes | 23c | 421.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 376.8$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.78 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 4c | 368.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +13.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…48cfbacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…c7d9backed Yes | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 23c | 209$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67b4…d3aabacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de4…ca53backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 199.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…78fdbacked No | 77c | 166.77$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 23c | 155.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 7c | 145.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0664…4dcfbacked Yes | 21c | 138.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 23c | 138.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 11c | 112.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 23c | 104.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…6072backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x911f…5ed0backed Yes | 22c | 91.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 23c | 90.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Yes | 23c | 89.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 87.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 80.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 23c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd3…bd7fbacked No | 77c | 78.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…2648backed Yes | 24c | 76.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 24c | 73.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…6c9fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 204 | 54.4%111 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…da69backed No | 77c | 38.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…a61dbacked No | 77c | 34.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 32.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +32%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 78c | 31.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5083…a99fbacked No | 77c | 26.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcc…115abacked No | 77c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 94 | 67%63 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 97 | 67%65 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…a036backed No | 77c | 24.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-03-15?this page
- Will FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-03-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.