Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3acd6302cfd3a42046f0f9f06695c3914c8152af4c3fb771582375f03de5a1e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,435 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 6,072$4,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.06 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eed…64c2backed Yes | 79c | 6,032$4,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,755.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 62c | 1,924$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.69 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 35c | 1,429$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 1,419$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.39 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 6c | 960$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 6c | 914.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 22c | 820.08$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.18 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 18c | 756.6$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.94 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 12c | 714.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 25c | 523.66$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 21c | 474.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed Yes | 28c | 410.21$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.86 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 28c | 360$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 71c | 347.35$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…8e34backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…5f66backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…8228backed Yes | 18c | 288.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -84%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 80c | 277.4$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 150 | 71.3%107 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Yes | 15c | 235$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +282.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 23c | 217$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.09 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Yes | 17c | 216.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…c7d9backed Yes | 28c | 208$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b4…a52ebacked No | 19c | 205.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.26 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef6…e31abacked Yes | 78c | 205.13$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…0b60backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…c6b9backed Yes | 18c | 172.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 28c | 167.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 71c | 164.28$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 19c | 153.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 22c | 139.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 40c | 100.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…26babacked Yes | 75c | 100.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9684…a461backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…eaf5backed No | 72c | 99.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa273…ea43backed Yes | 29c | 95.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 20c | 90.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc8…c3b0backed Yes | 29c | 86.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…a150backed Yes | 29c | 85.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 71c | 85.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 19c | 80.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 64c | 76.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a6…ca4bbacked Yes | 71c | 73.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…5834backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Yes | 74c | 67.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…ff2abacked Yes | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b83…66a2backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…ca52backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 71c | 48.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 28c | 45.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 73c | 41.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…78debacked No | 64c | 39.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 75c | 35.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ae…230ebacked No | 72c | 34.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520a…ec2dbacked Yes | 77c | 33.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…f0febacked No | 72c | 31.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Yes | 36c | 30.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…7e4cbacked No | 72c | 29.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1d…127ebacked No | 72c | 29.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb926…0519backed Yes | 74c | 29.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3af…b1bebacked No | 72c | 29.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e49…3cf6backed No | 72c | 27.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…f86bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed No | 71c | 24.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 73c | 21.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 19.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa326…33fcbacked Yes | 78c | 19.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 72c | 18.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-03-15?No won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-03-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.