Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5de989069d1dee3f8a068e0b99ba07fdc3f75d3fdefc7edebdfa5f74a630c51d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 73c | 4,583$3,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.69 | 310 | 45.2%140 W · 170 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Yes | 24c | 3,695$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.54 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 2,946$2,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.72 | 2,564 | 39.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 24c | 1,345$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.33 | 480 | 30.6%147 W · 333 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 26c | 967.75$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.1 | 545 | 40.9%223 W · 322 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Yes | 27c | 756.67$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.42 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…857abacked Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…b523backed Yes | 27c | 399.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 76c | 376.51$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…f760backed Yes | 16c | 314.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 74c | 285.22$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 257.41$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 1,024 | 44.4%455 W · 569 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 14c | 255.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 73c | 228.15$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 514 | 42.2%217 W · 297 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 352 | 37.2%131 W · 221 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 72c | 144$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 412 | 44.4%183 W · 229 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…ab12backed Yes | 19c | 137.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x876f…bbb9backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Yes | 20c | 83.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x638a…64e2backed Yes | 27c | 70.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Yes | 24c | 61.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…e039backed Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -8.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Yes | 25c | 43.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 73c | 37.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 74c | 32.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 501 | 43.5%218 W · 283 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 402 | 57.5%231 W · 171 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb66a…b156backed No | 76c | 22.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…e7debacked No | 75c | 21.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +6.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 79c | 14.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Bochum vs. VfL Osnabrück end in a draw?this page
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-08-28?No won
- Will VfL Osnabrück win on 2026-08-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.