Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5df2dfb267a2170093423a7bd1007e6dffca011639f5a16f1bf49bab49a9db49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed Yes | 22c | 409.84$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.31 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 359.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 349.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 62c | 306$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.63 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 63c | 228.21$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 214.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 174.84$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.37 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 21c | 169.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 169.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 161.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 158.19$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 40c | 150$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 74c | 146.82$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 142.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 15c | 142.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.74 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…ff6ebacked Yes | 65c | 127.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 103.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 19c | 100.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 88.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 82.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 33c | 81.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 74c | 74.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 72.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 21c | 71.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 15c | 68.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 38c | 62.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 33c | 59.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 58.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 58.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…5cf7backed Yes | 44c | 45.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 44.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 67c | 42.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 32c | 38.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 35.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 51c | 30.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 80c | 26.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 50c | 24.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 74c | 20.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f56…584dbacked Yes | 74c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.