Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb404dfca5bf61b824b9540553810bbb753b8195cc9baa7e6c16b9794ed73eb1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 36c | 1,805$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.05 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,217$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.87 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 790$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 592.53$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 58c | 499.97$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 480$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 8c | 474.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 60c | 472$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.35 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 354.15$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 287.84$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 54c | 192.37$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 57c | 188.17$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 59c | 175$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 163.31$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 43c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 146.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 43c | 116.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 104.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 34c | 103.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 101.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 100.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 97.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 90.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked No | 59c | 84.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 82.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 42c | 79.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 68.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 68.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 59c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 64.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…42f0backed Yes | 42c | 62.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 69c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 55.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 48c | 52.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 51.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 26c | 50.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…c532backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 47.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 43.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…5cf7backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a02…7c94backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 37.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 35.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…f43bbacked No | 59c | 35.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 63c | 33.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 80c | 30.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c4…93b9backed No | 59c | 28.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 37c | 27.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 65c | 26.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 39c | 25.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 23.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.