South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5df548bd1a8b6be59766bc0a3332fee52c4c098692b797a4dbba2d5f9208f7e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CR Vasco da Gamaof Santos FC, CR Vasco da Gama
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CR Vasco da Gama | 79c | 395$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Santos FC | 14c | 212.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Santos FC | 26c | 137$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Santos FC | 16c | 104.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Santos FC | 21c | 100.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Santos FC | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Santos FC | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Santos FC | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed CR Vasco da Gama | 77c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked CR Vasco da Gama | 75c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)this page
- Santos FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Santos FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 1.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 3.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-2.5)Santos FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.