South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-12-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e337d7bf3c6057913a3bdbc0b6480b701b59717daa9a3b14d5cbaa434a2e030
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 68c | 4,043$2,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.18 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 47c | 2,111$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.58 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 22c | 1,847$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.49 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 36c | 1,344$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.26 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 40c | 1,008$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.1 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 32c | 883.2$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.51 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 37c | 797.6$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.53 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 63c | 658.84$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.03 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Yes | 62c | 537.8$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.05 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 33c | 495.36$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.22 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 39c | 446.15$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.15 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 18c | 443.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked No | 62c | 439.21$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 16c | 329.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d32…fe50backed Yes | 38c | 264.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…3ef7backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…a2ccbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7eebbacked Yes | 41c | 258.9$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422b…093dbacked Yes | 69c | 213.49$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…5b8bbacked Yes | 60c | 164.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Yes | 69c | 159.42$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 36c | 154$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.11 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c9…2278backed Yes | 39c | 143.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde22…292abacked Yes | 70c | 140.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 38c | 133.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 38c | 131.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed No | 35c | 94.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -10.4wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -46%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x65fd…5dd3backed Yes | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 61c | 87.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 38c | 78.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d27ebacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 60c | 60.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 36c | 55.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…ac2bbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…9d56backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -9.0wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…2ab9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…33debacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…c06cbacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…d729backed Yes | 69c | 33.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…0ce4backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca9…b9a8backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 62c | 16.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-12-03?this page
- Will SC Internacional win on 2025-12-03?No won
- Will São Paulo FC vs. SC Internacional end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.