TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Cap Cana: Mariano Navone vs Shintaro Mochizuki

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mariano Navoneof Mariano Navone, Shintaro Mochizuki
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,211

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,211 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Shintaro Mochizuki11c4,330$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.672,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Mariano Navone60c2,300$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90993055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Shintaro Mochizuki39c1,987$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.091,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9175…bd29backed Mariano Navone60c1,646$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.888446.4%39 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Shintaro Mochizuki15c1,438$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.8380938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Mariano Navone66c1,284$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.466,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Shintaro Mochizuki39c1,227$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4731,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki40c1,200$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4803,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Shintaro Mochizuki40c1,000$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.624,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Mariano Navone61c998.99$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.6187251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Shintaro Mochizuki30c898.64$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.3328933.2%96 W · 193 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Mariano Navone64c833$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3021,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Shintaro Mochizuki39c782.8$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.2935040.9%143 W · 207 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mariano Navone77c691.18$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.12,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Shintaro Mochizuki16c626.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10068026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Shintaro Mochizuki40c534$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.61,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Mariano Navone60c499.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20038268.1%260 W · 122 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mariano Navone69c480.77$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.328,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Mariano Navone61c400$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.81,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Shintaro Mochizuki38c363.6$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.231,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Shintaro Mochizuki38c330$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.632842.7%140 W · 188 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Shintaro Mochizuki40c325$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13053058.1%308 W · 222 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mariano Navone61c314.43$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.731,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Shintaro Mochizuki38c260.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.261,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Mariano Navone62c242.41$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4140264.4%259 W · 143 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Shintaro Mochizuki17c235.94$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.694,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shintaro Mochizuki6c211.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.247,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Mariano Navone65c210.78$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.922,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Shintaro Mochizuki15c205.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.723,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…4eb0backed Shintaro Mochizuki39c197.34$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa373…b6dcbacked Shintaro Mochizuki40c187.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7554348.1%261 W · 282 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Mariano Navone60c183.14$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.259,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Shintaro Mochizuki40c179$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.62,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Mariano Navone61c165.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.121,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Mariano Navone61c164$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.962,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Mariano Navone62c160$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.81,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Shintaro Mochizuki25c158.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.862,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Mariano Navone60c157.34$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9497141.4%402 W · 569 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Shintaro Mochizuki40c123.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5066452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Shintaro Mochizuki39c123.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.391,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x277c…e529backed Shintaro Mochizuki39c103.13$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.225446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e79…54d2backed Shintaro Mochizuki17c101.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Mariano Navone61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6177967.8%528 W · 251 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65eb…e197backed Shintaro Mochizuki11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112552%13 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Shintaro Mochizuki31c98.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.814136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Shintaro Mochizuki39c89.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Mariano Navone62c89.11$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.562,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7747…8d9bbacked Shintaro Mochizuki45c88.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9331941.4%132 W · 187 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Shintaro Mochizuki20c87.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x651e…567bbacked Mariano Navone61c85$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki39c82$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.981,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Shintaro Mochizuki17c79.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5736333.9%123 W · 240 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84c6…68dabacked Shintaro Mochizuki37c78.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.262263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+51%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Shintaro Mochizuki26c77.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.766,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Shintaro Mochizuki39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Shintaro Mochizuki40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3069253.3%369 W · 323 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Shintaro Mochizuki24c74.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7661953.3%330 W · 289 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x628a…6d8fbacked Shintaro Mochizuki17c73.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.611347.8%54 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Shintaro Mochizuki28c67.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.173,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Mariano Navone74c56.35$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.938147%179 W · 202 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Shintaro Mochizuki39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x866a…de80backed Shintaro Mochizuki20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013113.7%18 W · 113 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Shintaro Mochizuki40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2077047.9%369 W · 401 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Shintaro Mochizuki40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2029244.5%130 W · 162 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Shintaro Mochizuki40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027246.3%126 W · 146 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Mariano Navone61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1824563.3%155 W · 90 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Shintaro Mochizuki39c47.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.647,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Shintaro Mochizuki39c47.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3515353.6%82 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7027…fababacked Mariano Navone65c45.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.825860.3%35 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+13.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Shintaro Mochizuki39c34.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.631,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Shintaro Mochizuki38c34.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.952,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Shintaro Mochizuki39c33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8796844.4%430 W · 538 L-1.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Mariano Navone61c32.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.525032%16 W · 34 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbebf…9baebacked Mariano Navone62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2690854.5%495 W · 413 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Mariano Navone62c31.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0437071.9%266 W · 104 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79bf…0de5backed Shintaro Mochizuki39c31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.09837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Mariano Navone62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.499044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Mariano Navone62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.473745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2fc…a7c1backed Shintaro Mochizuki40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba4f…7ecebacked Shintaro Mochizuki40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108159.3%48 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x586d…fb12backed Mariano Navone64c19.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1721172%152 W · 59 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc11d…421bbacked Mariano Navone68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7810967%73 W · 36 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked Mariano Navone78c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.8743951.9%228 W · 211 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.