Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5eb9ce3a2e7d0fd757210e287d1da059334da76773254edf83e7ca14fd93d5ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chelsea FCof Arsenal FC, Chelsea FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Arsenal FC | 21c | 16,843$3,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,536.99 | 282 | 42.2%119 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chelsea FC | 79c | 8,644$6,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.34 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chelsea FC | 79c | 8,280$6,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.15 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Arsenal FC | 21c | 2,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 301 | 43.9%132 W · 169 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Chelsea FC | 79c | 1,134$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.52 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Chelsea FC | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Arsenal FC | 18c | 333.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…5863backed Arsenal FC | 17c | 312.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arsenal FC | 19c | 304$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Arsenal FC | 18c | 117.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chelsea FC | 76c | 92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arsenal FC | 27c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Chelsea FC | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Chelsea FC | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Chelsea FC | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Chelsea FC | 79c | 15.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.