Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ee573481d7b016676295b4951b45612504f4e291f53eefb6147d842a9e9aa77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9a3…8e60backed Yes | 33c | 742.54$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 39c | 393.66$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.1 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 25c | 307.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.76 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 75c | 264.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 50c | 254.29$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.64 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 214.18$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 202.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 192$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 188.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 31c | 175.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.24 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 33c | 166.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.1 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 26c | 153.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.53 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 62c | 130.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 127.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 114$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 77c | 104.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 101.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 21c | 99.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 31c | 97.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 93.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 85.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 85.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 75.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 73.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 73.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 27c | 71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 68.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed Yes | 79c | 67.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 80c | 65.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 65.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 63.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 24c | 57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 25c | 53.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 48.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 32c | 37.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…014fbacked No | 40c | 35.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 78c | 34.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 35c | 31.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 66c | 28.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 58c | 27.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 64c | 27.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…f63abacked No | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 25.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 23.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 69c | 16.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25bd…9441backed No | 76c | 15.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 15.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.