Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea8daf8856908b79d3feee7cc8f2f0ec3ead79e989c5e68ba2472ff0ee99ca2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 22c | 538.06$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.45 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 450.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.27 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 6c | 428.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…e168backed No | 76c | 393.71$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.15 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 35c | 265.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.91 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 206.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 15c | 173.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 171.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 149.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 17c | 146$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 123.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 36c | 106.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 106.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 24c | 93.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 19c | 93.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 89.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 24c | 89.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes | 33c | 85.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 69c | 84.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 82.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 25c | 78.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 20c | 76.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 39c | 59.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 47.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 33c | 47.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 47.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 29c | 45.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 43.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 36c | 31.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 64c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 23.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 62c | 17.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…8f82backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 73c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 14.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.