Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71e8d66715bd80b7c306b2dec1f5364476b0cfd9c9a312d8db5a6f0ed7e7eac2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 1,321$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.31 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 44c | 671.87$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.38 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 30c | 464.77$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.11 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 7c | 363.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 267.64$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 186$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 72c | 164$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 157.41$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 70c | 151.51$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 14c | 151.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 149.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 136.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 134.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 24c | 130.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 106.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 26c | 106.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 98.6$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 97.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 85.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 71c | 84.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 77.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 65c | 74.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 71c | 70.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 62.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 62c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 55.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 47.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 63c | 46.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 41.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 39.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed Yes | 34c | 35.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 34c | 32.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 30.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 29.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 19.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 16.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 16.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.