NHL · resolved market
AHL: Ontario Reign vs. Henderson Silver Knights
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5eea6abe0f45c3dd09fd4458272f7c4ad43670d751bb3e740015d77435a48528
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ontario Reignof Ontario Reign, Henderson Silver Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,205 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Henderson Silver Knights | 45c | 3,573$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.71 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…172fbacked Ontario Reign | 55c | 1,499$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.55 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Ontario Reign | 56c | 1,177$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.93 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Henderson Silver Knights | 47c | 630.3$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.24 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Ontario Reign | 53c | 339.62$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.62 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Ontario Reign | 55c | 278.18$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.18 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -11.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Ontario Reign | 59c | 208.25$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Ontario Reign | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Ontario Reign | 53c | 171.75$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Henderson Silver Knights | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 292 | 41.1%120 W · 172 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Henderson Silver Knights | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Ontario Reign | 55c | 145.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Ontario Reign | 53c | 130.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Henderson Silver Knights | 47c | 121.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Ontario Reign | 56c | 97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Ontario Reign | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d3…bd58backed Ontario Reign | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Henderson Silver Knights | 42c | 84.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Ontario Reign | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…176bbacked Ontario Reign | 53c | 70.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Ontario Reign | 53c | 60.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Henderson Silver Knights | 39c | 53.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Henderson Silver Knights | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…922bbacked Ontario Reign | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…4314backed Ontario Reign | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Henderson Silver Knights | 43c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Henderson Silver Knights | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Henderson Silver Knights | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Henderson Silver Knights | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Ontario Reign | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178c…1798backed Henderson Silver Knights | 47c | 21.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Ontario Reign | 66c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Ontario Reign | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…cba7backed Ontario Reign | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.