Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f1ba63b56f1696d428dfdf894135eeaabdd14c1399aeb2a5947ce8b4142ac1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AS Romaof AS Roma, US Lecce
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed US Lecce | 66c | 6,962$4,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,617.27 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed AS Roma | 53c | 3,710$1,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed AS Roma | 29c | 3,250$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,294.66 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked US Lecce | 72c | 3,190$2,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,296.8 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed AS Roma | 29c | 1,999$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.29 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed AS Roma | 28c | 1,560$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.73 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed US Lecce | 59c | 1,083$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.11 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed US Lecce | 19c | 1,062$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.71 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked US Lecce | 59c | 989$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.57 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acb…d2c7backed AS Roma | 40c | 562.48$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.48 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed US Lecce | 72c | 510$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.2 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd951…f30bbacked AS Roma | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked AS Roma | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked US Lecce | 60c | 224.57$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.62 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae7…0319backed AS Roma | 42c | 186.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed AS Roma | 28c | 185$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed AS Roma | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked AS Roma | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed US Lecce | 28c | 164.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked AS Roma | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed AS Roma | 29c | 136.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.66 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed US Lecce | 70c | 128.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 229 | 47.6%109 W · 120 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked US Lecce | 71c | 112$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4610…0eb3backed AS Roma | 28c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked AS Roma | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed AS Roma | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked AS Roma | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed AS Roma | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked US Lecce | 71c | 71.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…8528backed AS Roma | 29c | 68.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed AS Roma | 47c | 58.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed AS Roma | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed AS Roma | 28c | 51.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f50…d342backed US Lecce | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed US Lecce | 71c | 41.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d09…dd55backed US Lecce | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…f56fbacked AS Roma | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed AS Roma | 29c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed AS Roma | 29c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbeba…3d1dbacked AS Roma | 46c | 32.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked US Lecce | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked US Lecce | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf443…f640backed AS Roma | 41c | 28.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked US Lecce | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed US Lecce | 72c | 16.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)this page
- US Lecce vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Lecce vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Lecce vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Lecce vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Lecce vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.