Serie A · resolved market
US Lecce vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15861ff80549e1ad7316f907c9fd10e91b7278987e4f200ad628c7f0906325f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 4,117$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.66 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Under | 71c | 1,050$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.33 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 770.43$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 79c | 718.99$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.99 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Over | 9c | 440$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 28c | 319.33$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…08f1backed Over | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 15c | 203.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 23c | 181.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +16.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 79c | 123$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 76c | 122.51$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed Over | 16c | 115.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 21c | 114$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 14c | 110.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 80c | 78.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f50…d342backed Over | 22c | 56.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Under | 69c | 46.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Under | 80c | 46.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 50 | 78%39 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…dd2bbacked Under | 79c | 43.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…e7eebacked Under | 80c | 38.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6596…b50bbacked Under | 80c | 30.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 70c | 29.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 78c | 25.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 55c | 21.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Under | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Lecce vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won
- US Lecce vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Lecce vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Lecce vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Lecce vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.