Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f1c3ec3aa67c46aea06efc1fc9c3fc6b91ea53389f2c0194e6c7ba5a4a22fd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 466.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 8c | 324.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 30c | 304$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 9c | 277$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 248.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 13c | 242.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 223.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 8c | 190$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 8c | 185.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 19c | 184.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 32c | 182.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 18c | 115$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 31c | 108$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 96.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 77.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 77.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 13c | 74.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 71.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 34c | 69.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 63.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 63.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 60.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 51.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 35c | 50.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 80c | 50.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…fc60backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed Yes | 34c | 46.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 41.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 76c | 39.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked No | 66c | 34.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 66c | 30.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 71c | 28.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 71c | 27.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…c01fbacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 20.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 69c | 17.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 66c | 16.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 73c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…5650backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.