Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c10c854f0719a6364d1efcc4a880cd05689fbbbc99fb4f40072e57af4fe9233
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 38c | 262.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 212.38$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 21c | 205.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 194.84$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 38c | 172.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 147.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 14c | 130.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 125$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 108.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 86.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 85.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 79.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 34c | 63.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 57.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 56.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 39c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 29c | 41.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 41.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 40.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 39c | 39.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 63c | 39.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 36.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 65c | 36.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 33.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 28.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 24.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 21.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 74c | 18.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 62c | 16.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 16.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.