UFC · resolved market
UFC: Johnson vs. Abbey
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f4db33b5b3077016444dcdc582a8676763f910c95ec3f78e9d6afbf475b2469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Johnson of Johnson , Abbey
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Johnson | 67c | 2,090$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.37 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Abbey | 34c | 1,400$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.38 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Abbey | 32c | 625.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.29 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Johnson | 64c | 387.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.48 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Abbey | 31c | 320.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Abbey | 32c | 310$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…d4cebacked Abbey | 34c | 294.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Johnson | 66c | 289.26$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.35 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…53c7backed Abbey | 15c | 230$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…9071backed Johnson | 73c | 190.33$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Johnson | 67c | 172$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Abbey | 27c | 163.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Abbey | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Abbey | 29c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0679…bebbbacked Abbey | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Johnson | 71c | 58.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Johnson | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Johnson | 70c | 39.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Johnson | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC: Johnson vs. Abbey this page
- UFC: Miller vs. Gandra Gandra won
- UFC: Perez vs. Sousa Sousa won
- UFC: Wilson vs. Barbosa Barbosa won
- UFC: Yakhyaev vs. Lorenz Yakhyaev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.