World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f8d84041a9e07b6c974f992c063feda32132d504c42852ec1af3b6d789b397b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 58c | 788$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.38 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 60c | 165.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 53c | 140.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 41c | 139.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 41c | 136.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 28c | 135.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 131.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 59c | 126$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 37c | 103.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 102$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 86.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 86.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 40c | 84.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed Yes | 77c | 79.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 67.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 55c | 63.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…4140backed Yes | 70c | 62.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 66c | 60.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 57.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 48c | 53.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 53.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 62c | 49.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 48.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 48c | 48.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 57c | 37.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 45c | 36.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 75c | 33.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 44c | 33.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 59c | 29.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed Yes | 48c | 28.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 47c | 28.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 27.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 59c | 25.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…e8d0backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 62c | 19.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 57c | 19.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +121%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 57c | 17.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 61c | 16.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.