MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f9dfa3237fd6e4d6efc71f6e4a56e6cd536b78e0ef8bde7f73372570ce67ce6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 55c | 27,754$15,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,512.56 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 19,797$10,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,908.64 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 19,314$8,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,706.17 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 17,058$7,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,770.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 45c | 8,816$3,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,967 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 53c | 7,750$4,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,642.5 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 45c | 6,075$2,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,733.75 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 46c | 6,073$2,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,793.51 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 54c | 6,000$3,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,759.99 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 39c | 5,421$2,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,114.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 4,391$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.74 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 3,178$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 47c | 1,984$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.66 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 1,673$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 46c | 1,024$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.04 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 46c | 802$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.92 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 45c | 774.66$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.6 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Under | 48c | 640$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.2 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 45c | 597.66$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.95 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 440.1$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.49 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 53c | 422.15$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.41 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Under | 15c | 398.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 46c | 360.44$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.57 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 46c | 334.57$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.87 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 46c | 287$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.69 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 54c | 232.56$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 157.66$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Under | 45c | 146.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…5495backed Over | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 126.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 14c | 121.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 45c | 119.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 78c | 118$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 61c | 114.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 46c | 114.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 45c | 102.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 46c | 98.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 45c | 95.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Under | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 53c | 82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 45c | 81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa214…0653backed Under | 45c | 76.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 14c | 75.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Over | 72c | 69.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -11.1wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 45c | 67.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 47c | 56.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 46.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 47c | 42.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…556abacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Under | 33c | 37.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 45c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd3…1e24backed Over | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -6.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York YankeesDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-7.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.