MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44749e7891b08d323566c5f71d7c8bdf50d7c370e0770fb5caba057feb1aa55d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 45c | 1,029$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.73 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 889.46$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.18 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 55c | 830.18$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.6 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 719.72$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 10c | 420$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 50c | 322.2$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.11 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 55c | 276.1$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.86 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 74c | 252.26$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 46c | 247.07$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.42 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 53c | 222.39$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.49 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 77c | 193.19$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 54c | 161.68$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Under | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 126.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 121.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 79c | 118$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 21c | 117$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Over | 77c | 87.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -11.1wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 70.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 49c | 67.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Under | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 34c | 58.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda8a…2dbabacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 77c | 49.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 39c | 49.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5761…b74cbacked Under | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 42.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 34c | 42.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…7b62backed Over | 75c | 39.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 55c | 37.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 44c | 34.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 55c | 33.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 32.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 53c | 28.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Under | 50c | 26.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a6…6684backed Under | 47c | 25.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 55 | 81.8%45 W · 10 L | +11.4wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 59c | 17.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York YankeesDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-7.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.